Can Gas Cost get any Higher ?

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blayzer13
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Re: Can Gas Cost get any Higher ?

Post by blayzer13 »

it seems to me that the most feasable solution to alternate energy sources is a mix of a lot of them. hydro power, wind powr, bio diesel, fuel cell, hydrogen cell, and other sources if all used to maximum potential could remove the dependency for fossil fuels.

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Re: Can Gas Cost get any Higher ?

Post by Lokelo »

[quote=""blayzer13""]it seems to me that the most feasable solution to alternate energy sources is a mix of a lot of them. hydro power, wind powr, bio diesel, fuel cell, hydrogen cell, and other sources if all used to maximum potential could remove the dependency for fossil fuels.[/quote]

+1

That and stop wasting resources. Sorry if I offend anybody, but Americans (and I'm sure there are other countries like that) with their SUVs and Australians with their car and V8 fetish are just plain stupid. :roll:

@Indy
I saw that I actually already wrote most of the easy and straightforward arguments. I will try to write some of the finer details sometime soon, but that will take more time. And I can post the literature review I'm currently writing when I'm finished with it (deadline: 17 June 8O ). Although it will mostly contain some biological and chemical mumbo jumbo and wont be interesting for most people.

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Re: Can Gas Cost get any Higher ?

Post by HuggyPierre »

1,53€ /litre here in Germany (Oldenburg). =/

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Re: Can Gas Cost get any Higher ?

Post by blayzer13 »

additionally as much as there is animosity at the technology, there is a lot of potential for nuclear technology as an energy resource. one of the main things hindering the growth of this is the problems that it has caused. if the examples of the mistakes that have been made with nuclear technology, hiroshima, nagasaki, trenoble, and the extent of the devastation behind them, imagine the possibilities if there was able support to redirect the energy use a positive more efficient direction. an example of this would be less waste, easier to control radiation, definitely a huge hindrance is the problems that have happened while learning.

as with all technology with potential to kill there will be mistakes. look at the evolution of explosives themselves. it is slightly hard to believe that no body has ever died in the history of the grenade.

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Re: Can Gas Cost get any Higher ?

Post by Cyclohexane »

[quote=""IndyBrit""]Hmmmm.

I'm deeply enmeshed in all of these technologies with automobile and oil companies - to the point where I can't talk about certain specifics. However - I'm telling you that there is no conspiracy against these technologies, that electric cars are not in our near future because of the merits (or lack) of the technology, that in most of the U.S. and Europe the solar home is neither cheap nor feasible (but there are a few passive solar technologies that make sense and should be utilized), and that when alternate fuels are utilized it will be the oil companies leading the way. Further, it is decidedly in the interests of the bigs to have an educated work force and populace, and they wish for that every day.

I'm not against this stuff - I drive a Prius for crying out loud. It's just that when you get into specifics on these various technologies, it's clear that there are many challenges that need to be addressed, and there are unintended consequences that kill many alternate technologies.

If you want to, let's select one and talk about it in specifics - I'll tell you what I can.[/quote]

I forgot about this thread. About the conspiracy thing, it is difficult to prove a negative. While I agree with your statement about being competitive, my point was that it is feasible. Of course it is in their vested interest not to compete with renewable energy, that is why they lobby to government and oil is subsidized directly and indirectly (I do not see them hiring mercenaries to protect oversea interests). With all the money these companies invest in alternate energies, why hasn’t anything significant came out? It’s these smaller companies making the breakthroughs. By the way, have you watched the documentary?

In many parts of the country, Solar power is entirely feasible. For example in Texas, a $40K investment will provide enough energy to completely erase your electric bill and feed the grid in peak days. Then when you consider a $40K home equity loan will be about $500 a month (for 7 years), it is starting to become economical (only about $100 more a month than what I pay per month for electricity and that is definitely going to increase). If you plan to live in your home for at least 10 years, it is not a bad investment considering they are typically guaranteed for over 25 years and will definitely add to the value of your home (no electric bill). The problem is, most people move on average every 5 years. In that case, you cannot justify the cost. About your Chicago example, don’t they have plenty of wind? While solar is out, wind would work. It’s a combination of techniques that will make a difference.

There are solar panels that can achieve over 40% efficiencies, which is better than most internal combustion engines. I will agree that they are not economical, but that is the catch 22 we are in. Until there is a demand, prices will remain high, as long as prices are high, there will be a low demand. There are technologies in the work that are extremely promising (i.e. Nano Solar is promising solar panels printed on plastic 90% cheaper than their silicone counterparts) and they are being currently sold overseas.

In the example I gave, with the California 18K tax credit, the man was able to pay off his investment in about 7 years. Then his electricity in his home and for his 100% electric automobile was free. I agree with you that fuel cells are not a feasible technology, merely a carrot to dangle over gas customers heads. I do believe it is in our best interest to force alternate energy technology. Not just from an environmental view point, but also from a national security. With that said, I strongly believe in subsidizing research and providing tax credits to customers. It will take more than just solar or wind, but also nuclear to get us off our oil addiction. In the mean time, we should start drilling in America, but also stop subsidizing oil.

My brother in law just came back from Mexico last week. There were cars wrapping around the block waiting in line for gas. Not because of a shortage, but because it is about $1.50 a gallon cheaper in Mexico at this moment than here. Are you telling me we are not getting fleeced? Don’t blame inflation, 1 of our dollars is still about 10 of their pesos.

p.s. if you check out my website, I have collected a ton of links to current technological breakthroughs. Click Here. Check out the Alternate Energy Link. It’s been awhile since I updated it, but it is a nice collection.
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Re: Can Gas Cost get any Higher ?

Post by KingKaramazov »

All I can say about the gas prices is that I don't buy that they are necessary.

By all accounts it seems that the oil companies are making wondrous amounts of profits. It just doesn't make sense that the current prices are at all necessary as a result of the price of production given the amount of money being made by companies like Exxon / Mobile, Shell, etc.

I don't know what the solution is, but something has to be done to force the prices to go down. Gasoline is too vital a commodity to allow a small group of companies to jack up the prices at will.
"Why are some people all grasshopper fiddlings, scrappings, all antennae shivering, one big ganglion eternally knotting, slip-knotting, square-knotting themselves?  They stoke a furnace all their lives, sweat their lips, shine their ey

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Re: Can Gas Cost get any Higher ?

Post by luukje »

That's true, the "big" guys are making monstrous profits, not only the oil producing countries. And the small businesses, like gas stations often are obliged to give more discounts than they can afford, because people are beginning to consume less fuel everywhere except for asia/russia where demands rises much faster than our consumption is slowing down.

What is also troubling me is that oil is a basic commodity for lot's of other products (plastic, cosmetics, chemicals,...) and that not only the price of these products will starts rising, but that we are wasting one of the most wonderfull products nature has to offer us, just on mobility.

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Re: Can Gas Cost get any Higher ?

Post by Comadevil »

well the problems are not only the oil companies.

The biggest problem is that more and more oil resources are under the control of a state or under the control of an oil company which belongs to the state. Exxon and other "free" oil companies have problems with acquiring new oil sources because of the problem above. Exxon said already that they cannot keep their production up due to that old oil fields are empty.
And the "state" companies have the problem that they have no experience and no know-how to get to the oil in dfficult locations while the "free" have it. Also leads to a decrease of oil.

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Re: Can Gas Cost get any Higher ?

Post by luukje »

[quote=""Comadevil""]well the problems are not only the oil companies.

The biggest problem is that more and more oil resources are under the control of a state or under the control of an oil company which belongs to the state. Exxon and other "free" oil companies have problems with acquiring new oil sources because of the problem above. Exxon said already that they cannot keep their production up due to that old oil fields are empty.
And the "state" companies have the problem that they have no experience and no know-how to get to the oil in dfficult locations while the "free" have it. Also leads to a decrease of oil.[/quote]

No. State ownership doesnt change a thing except for the who's getting rich. Maybe in some special cases like bolivia or so, but with the oil comes the money to hire the best in the world.

I know people working in the gulf and russia, making more money ten they could over here. My dad is in an oil company for a couple of years (building oil storage capacity), they are all over the world, India, China, Nigeria and its the same tanks as in Europe or the US.

Maybe some oil is being lost with inefficiant pipelines in nigeria or siberia.

But we have to face the truth.

Theyre will never be any more oil then there is today.
New suplies just replace old exhausted ones.
Within a decade or so, the US and Europe will be pumped dry.
The gulf wont last forever.

We are winning oil from tar sands, wich cost almost as much energy as there is being gained. We are making fuel from valuable crops. ...

We will just have to reduce our energy use to maybe 25% (worst case 10%) of what we are using today by all means and invest in all usefull alternative energy sources.

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IndyBrit
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Re: Can Gas Cost get any Higher ?

Post by IndyBrit »

@luukje: state ownership changes quite a bit. It becomes political rather than economic, which changes everything that entails. For examples: the state oil company can't be sued for mistakes, bad practices that waste oil (ie leave it in the ground), or for environmental screw-ups. Further, the vested interests do not know what they are doing, and they are therefore relying on the contractors to the right thing for them, which increases risk and cost due to oversight. Not to mention that "ownership" periodically changing radically for reasons completely unrelated to the oil business.

@cyclohexane: I don't consider tax-dependent strategies to be "feasible" because they are specifically intended to get a market started and not for bulk conversion (look @ hybrid cars, for example). Feasible for a person, yes, but not for a society, and the society-level change is required for this issue. You may disagree on my definition, but I've just stated my position so we don't have to hash that out later.

When you say solar is "feasible" in parts of the country, I agree with you if by that you don't mean "economically sound." As in my prior post, carbon sequestration is more economically sound everywhere in the U.S. at this time. That statement applies only to direct raw electricity. There are applications, especially cheap passive solar applications, where that statement does not hold and solar is competitive.

Solar efficiencies of 40% (and a bit higher) do not give quite the right description of this technology. Silicon-based converters are about 20% efficient. (gasolines are 20-25%, diesels 40-42%) With gallinium you can get your 30-40 range but gallinium will never be appropriate for mass production. Wikipedia states that solar electricity runs from $0.60 to $0.30 in the U.S., and based on my rough calculations above that seems about right. If you consider that fossil fuel electricity, with complete carbon storage, runs between 8 to 15 cents, plus 9 cents for storage, or 17 to 24 cents per kWh, it can be seen that fossil fuels beat solar soundly if cost and carbon emissions are your only criteria.

If Mexico has plentiful cheap gas, why are they wrapped around the block waiting for gas? I'm just saying... :D

As any upstanding Libertarian would, I would be first in line to cancel any oil subsidies (and ethanol, farm, any of the wide variety of corporate subsidies... etc etc)

@general group:
BTW, here you can ooh and ahh at the future:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/05/19/pickens.qa/index.html
This guy makes money at it, Shell buys him out, and they are suddenly one of the top alternative energy companies in the world. In 2026 you can come back here and remember what a genius I was. :-P Although, I don't support this due to the tax dependency of it, but it should impress if someone consider tax dependent strategies OK, and it's part of the equation on why the current energy producers will be the future energy producers (ie Big Oil will be Big Whatever)

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Re: Can Gas Cost get any Higher ?

Post by IndyBrit »

[quote=""luukje""][quote=""Comadevil""]We will just have to reduce our energy use to maybe 25% (worst case 10%) of what we are using today by all means and invest in all usefull alternative energy sources.[/quote][/quote]

Sorry, Luukje, I just couldn't let that go. US and Europe will not be dry in 10 years, just like they weren't dry in 20 years after the 70s. There is a lot of oil left, but ramping up production is expensive and much of the easy oil remaining is in environmentally sensitive areas. The "Peak oil" theory, even if true (and it is true, but nobody knows if it is today) is about the supply-demand rate comparison, and not the overall supply. The U.S. has at least half of it's original oil in place, and Europe is probably similar (or even better off). The problem is that it's the difficult half and it comes in a trickle rather than a gush.

The energy usage of the world will continue increasing, just as it has been. The developed nations have a declining rate of increase as efficient technologies become more economically competitive. Until China and India become prosperous (say 60% as rich as the West, per capita) they will not be able to afford efficient technologies so they will continue to increase their energy usage in the 10%-ish range. At that point, their energy usage will probably level off to the 4-6% type range we have. By then, maybe ours will level or decline due to enough cheap efficient technologies being available. Bottom line is there are at least 75 years or so of energy usage growth in the world, with at least 30 or so years of vigorous growth. And those energy needs will be met.

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Re: Can Gas Cost get any Higher ?

Post by Roger_The_Rogue »

Then all of us will be old men or dead by the time the energy needs will not be met. Lol.

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Re: Can Gas Cost get any Higher ?

Post by KingKaramazov »

Okay, can somebody explain to me how a company can be making exorbitant profits and yet be pricing its product as low as possible? Mind we're not talking about minimum profits required to pay people's salaries...we're talking about huge, huge profits that make the rich guys at the top of the food chain even richer.

Economics and common sense would say that if a company is making those kinds of profits, the price of their product much be must higher than the cost of production, and not just by a little bit. By a lot. In other words, they could lower the prices by quite a bit and still be making enough of a profit to be doing well.
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Re: Can Gas Cost get any Higher ?

Post by IndyBrit »

The secret is that profits are not that high. On the road, more later. :D

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Re: Can Gas Cost get any Higher ?

Post by lordandcount »

You guys in america are still lucky with benzine. Here it is 2 euro/litre cuz of tax etc
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